Predicting Local Crime

by bmaio1 on October 27, 2013 - 12:37pm

The problem that was addressed was the crime rate in the United States cities in comparison to the national crime rate trend. A study was set up to see the differences or similarities between national and local crime rates as well as the strength of this trend. Observation and careful note taking and statistics were used in a study to measure the difference in crime rates. The goals of the study were to obtain accurate data of increased/ decreased crime rate of several different cities and compare those results to results taken in previous years. Each city’s results were compared and noted of an increase (usually the case) or a decrease in crime. This trend was then compared on a larger scale to the overall crime rate of the nation by using the results of each city. To make the study accurate, each individual location’s population size was taken into consideration and areas of similar population were grouped together for comparisons. One surprising result that was found (somewhat unrelated to the actual study) was that the cause of crime throughout the nation was not constant. There was a direct and strong trend between the national patterns of crime and the more local patterns of crime. Both correlated and fluctuated in number on a rather consistent level. The best inference to differences between local and national crime rates are the varying imprisonment and justice laws among states.

            The research presented was of high quality due to several factors. First, the main goal of the study, which was the comparison of local and national crime rates in search of a trend, was laid out in the introduction. Background information about the previous study (that was used to compare to the recent study) was also clearly stated. The main problem of the general increase in crime rate was addressed throughout the entire study as it was the underlying reason of the study being conducted. The article presented several tables displaying the results of the research. These tables showed the comparisons between different cities as well as comparisons between the two studies. Mathematical equations were also used to rule out as much error as possible to ensure more accurate results. Several interpretations were made from the data that was collected. Some inferences made about differences of crime rates among areas were the issues pertaining to specific regions. What this means is that while one city or area may be experiencing deindustrialization, another might be going through economic expansion. Deindustrialization may lead to increased crime rate while economic expansion may lead to decreased crime rate. Though the research was beneficial in noting the trend between local and national crime, the authors did consider factors that may have impacted the results. For instance, some cities had a gap in time where records of crime were not accurate or were missing. What this means is that even with the lenience of the mathematical equations that were used, some of the results may be slightly different than the reality of the crime rate for the year. There were some ideas as to why this may have occurred (economic turmoil) and therefore a basic understanding that the results are more generalized than they are specific can be obtained. The consequence of the comparison between the two studies is proof that there is a strong trend between national and local crime and that one should remain aware of the recent national trend in order to predict the crime nearby. It also allows for the proof that crime rate has been on the rise and is a serious matter that should be looked into much more seriously on a national level.


The article described above seems to be an intriguing and informative piece of research that catches my attention. Specifically the articles involvement with predicting the crime rates is an interesting topic in itself, but when comparing national to local crime rates to one another showing a correlation it makes the reader curious as to how this could be done. The general overview of the article and few specifics given help the reader better understand the research and its importance, but at times it seemed to be too generalized. For instance, if there were even a few specific cities and national trends illustrated to the reader it would help give insight into understanding specifically what the research demonstrates. Stating those few examples and giving a personal understanding of what is being illustrated would help the reader understand the topic more in-depth as well as want to further look into the research topic themselves. Also what other methods of research did this article explore, knowing how the data was collected builds a better understanding of the research itself. Overall the topic was interesting and the way it was summarized furthered my interest in the topic raising curiosity on how the numbers specifically correlate and how strong this correlation is between the national and local levels of crime.

After a quick search online I found this website: it allows to find different crime rates and the ideal candidates based on the various crime rates. Ad I was looking through the results, I was able to find that the more deindustrialized areas were found in the highest crime rates while the more industrialized and less urban areas were found in the lower crime rate section of the website. I thought it was something interesting to analyze as it isn't always something people think of when they purchase a house or move to a new area and that this can help someone make a decision or at least prepare them to what could eventually happen. It also allows to confirm the study that the article is about and see the data in more detail.

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